Romney Has Won, Had Best Not Be An Etch A Sketch Candidate

March 22, 2012 4 Comments

Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. He has nearly half the delegates required to win, no one is within 300 of him at this point. Beginning in April all of the states are winner take all. With California and New York clearly in the Romney camp, no one else has a chance. Santorum would have to win 70% of the remaining delegates, he just doesn’t have the money or organization to pull that off. It’s time for Santorum and Newt to drop out of the race. It doesn’t matter whether Ron Paul drops or not, he was never relevant.

Now we in the Republican Party must now resign ourselves to the fact that we’ve nominated someone who we know nothing about. Sure, we know that a decade ago he ran as a progressive Republican in Massachusetts. We know that today he says he’s a conservative. His speech in Illinois the other night was excellent, it makes one think that Romney might actually have a conservative vision. Unfortunately, it still isn’t clear what his vision is. What will Romney do as President? What will he cut, who will he nominate to the Supreme Court? What big government programs will he cut, or worse what new big government programs will he create? We don’t know, because he hasn’t told  us.

Romney spent this entire campaign telling us that his opponents were conservative heretics. He trotted out random votes Santorum and Gingrich made and called them liberals and heretics with the millions in campaign money he had. Romney outspent all of his Republican rivals combined. There’s nothing wrong with it, but the way Romney’s campaign has been run tells us why the GOP has been slow to embrace him. Everyone else is a liberal but we don’t know what Romney is, we don’t know his vision. All we were told by his camp is that Obama is bad and Rick and Newt are almost as bad. That doesn’t inspire passion in Republican voters.

Now we conservatives are seeing our greatest fear come to light. Top Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom declared on CNN that Romney can become a moderate during the general election. He said “It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all of over again.” So now Romney is an Etch A Sketch, who isn’t a conservative and will tell voters whatever they want to hear. To be charitable, it isn’t Romney who said this. But what in the world is Fehrnstrom thinking saying such a thing on CNN? What would possess him to say this? Romney can show real leadership by firing Fehrnstrom. It’s the only way to calm the storm brewing on the right.

We now have two important events to look forward to with Romney, both of which will tell us the course of his fall campaign. First up will be selecting a Vice Presidential nominee. Romney needs to make a big splash with a nominee that will appease conservatives. Marco Rubio is one such person, Allen West is another. Romney has to pick someone that will excite his base, just a hint but Chris Christie isn’t that guy. Second will be Romney’s nomination speech at the GOP Convention. He’ll have an oppertunity to lay out his vision for the nation and if he wants conservatives to stay on board it had best be conservative. If Romney shows us to be a real Etch A Sketch candidate, he will lose in a landslide.

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February 22nd Republican Debate Review

February 23, 2012 Leave a comment

John King moderated what is likely the last Republican debate last night. In typical CNN fashion, it was largely a hit j0b. This time Rick Santorum was the recipient of absurd, irrelevant topics. The debate spent 15 minutes on women on the front lines, earmarks and contraception. All of these issues were highlighted to make Santorum look bad. It was as though Mitt Romney was the one asking the questions. The most important issue in the fall is going to be the economy and the debate spent less than 5 minutes on the subject.

Rick Santorum is a good example of why Senators and Congressmen shouldn’t run for President. They often have convoluted reasons for voting for or supporting various bills or proposals that make sense at the time but cannot be easily explained later. Santorum has very good reasons why he endorsed Arlen Spector but it took him over a minute to explain that Spector was Chairman of the Judiciary Committee and had promised to support Bush’s appointments. Even then, the Romney audience hemmed and hawed over it.

Santorum’s defense of earmarks was admirable. This issue has become a major boogyman, as though earmarks at 1% of the Federal budget are responsible for our debt problem. But his defense was convoluted and it seemed smarmy. Bills in Congress and sausage go hand in hand, you might like the finished product but you don’t want to see how it got there. A Senator is always going to have trouble explaining a handful of votes (unless you’re Obama and don’t have any) and Santorum just didn’t have it in him to provide concise explanations.

Romney was on the offensive all night. But he had two problems last night. First and foremost anyone who has paid attention to this race in Arizona and Michigan over the last week will realize that Romney did little more than verbatim repeat his television and radio ads when he attacked Santorum. In short, he played right into the plastic  and robot accusations.

But his second problem is perhaps worse, he came off as a hypocrite. In the never ending and largely meaningless discussion of earmarks it was pointed out that when Romney ran the Winter Olympics he had asked Congress for an earmark. In short, an earmark was ok when he wanted one but they’re evil and wasteful otherwise. That’s as hypocritical as Ron Paul putting earmarks into bills that he then makes a show of voting against.

Newt did a masterful job last night. He is by far the best debater. His problem though is that the party is tired of him. Conservatives have gravitated towards Santorum because Newt has to much baggage. In fact, at this point Newt is the difference between a Santorum victory and a Romney victory. Newt has stayed in the race, likely ensuring a Romney win after Santorum’s mediocre performance last night.

Ron Paul is so trusting of personal liberty, as he defines it, that he really believes that Iran wouldn’t use a nuclear weapon and would behave largely as the Soviet’s did. In his Iran comments he displays a complete lack of fundamental knowledge of the Muslim faith the Iranians have. The Soviets were atheists, this life is all they thought they had so it makes sense that they really didn’t want to kill themselves via a nuclear war. Iran not only believes they’ll get themselves 72 virgins for dying for Allah, they believe they can bring about a return of the 12th imam by creating chaos in the world. It doesn’t matter that they’re crazy, they really believe this stuff. Paul doesn’t get it and is unfit for the Presidency.

Romney won last night because he played a solid debate and Santorum missed opportunities to attack him. Santorum’s performance is a little concerning should he win the nomination. He lit up when he got to talk about the family but otherwise he seemed disconnected from the questions and the audience. Romney gave a typical steady eddie, plastic, robotic performance. That might not beat Obama either, he doesn’t exactly connect with people. But he makes the right moves at the right time, so he wins.

Win: Romney delivered a typical Mitt performance.

Place: Santorum did good enough for second but missed opportunities to knock out Romney.

Show: Newt is solid as ever but it really matters not.

Big loser: The conservative movement lost big last night. Santorum was our last hope to defeat the progressive Romney and he didn’t take advantage of his chance. With the political death of Santorum, so dies Reagan’s movement.

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Does Santorum Have The Guts To Win Debate Tonight?

February 22, 2012 Leave a comment

Tonight is a huge night Republican Presidential race. Arizona will be hosting what will likely be the last debate. Santorum and Romney are more or less tied in both Michigan and Arizona. Santorum has lost a couple of points here in Michigan, largely thanks to Romney’s misleading statements about Santorum’s Senate record. In Arizona Romney’s double digit lead has all but evaporated as conservatives look for someone other than Romney. Newt and Ron Paul are more or less irrelevant to the debate, which of course means they’ll be focused on the most by CNN. The real battle though is between Santorum and Romney.

Santorum has to do two things very well tonight. First, he has to put the media in its place concerning his Satan comment in 2008 and his recent use of the term theology. These are nonsense issues and Santorum needs to state that clearly and emphatically. Second, he needs to lay out a positive vision for  the future. In doing this it’s acceptable to hit Romney over Romneycare but he really needs to focus on his positive agenda should he win the White House. He needs to adopt the ‘there you go again’ mentality of Ronald Reagan in response to every attack Romney makes. The key here for Santorum is not to whine.

Romney can go one of two routes. He can go with his typical debate performance which is short on details and tall on smiles. In doing this he comes off as a “nice” guy while his surrogates massacre his opponents. It’s worked well for him. However, we’re hitting a point where a good deal of Republicans want to see more out of Romney. We want to see whether he can passionately defend conservative causes. So far, we’ve seen very little of this which is why Romney has had such a hard time breaking away from the pack.

If Santorum has a big night, he can win both states next week and he’ll be the frontrunner. As such, he’ll be injected with even more money. If he flounders tonight either Romney will end up running away with the election or conservatives will take a second look at Newt. Odds are conservatives have had enough of Newt, despite his generally terrific debate performances. The fact that he remains in the race, despite it being clear that he’s the difference between a Romney nomination and a Santorum nomination all but makes conservatives dislike him more.

The nomination rests in the hands of Rick Santorum. No matter which strategy Romney employs, he will deliver a generally good, plastic performance. He might not win a ton of voters based on his own performance but he likely won’t lose any either. It all rests on how Santorum does. If he hits a home run, he can run away with this thing. If he fouls out, it’s over. The scary thing is that Santorum’s performance may very well depend on what questions the liberals at CNN ask. It begs the question why Republicans continue to allow liberal media members to moderate our debates.

We here at Steven Birn Speaks question whether or not Santorum is ready to make the next step. We question whether he can adequately respond to absurd media attacks and Romney misleads without sounding whiney. In short, don’t get your hopes up that Santorum will rise to the occasion. For the sake of the conservative cause I hope he does, but don’t count on it.

For those interested I will be live tweeting during the debate tonight. Follow me on the twitter @stevebirnspeaks

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Santorum Sweeps But Does It Even Matter?

February 8, 2012 Leave a comment

Rick Santorum swept last night’s Caucuses and meaningless straw poll primary. As such we awake this morning to media declaring that Santorum has jolted the race. Conservatives are supposed to be terribly excited because Santorum is the new anti-Romney. Make no mistake, Rick Santorum is infinitely better than Mitt Romney. In the very least we know what Santorum believes and why he believes it. But why all the excitement?

Let’s take a deeper look at Santorum’s victories last night. To be upfront, his caucus wins were surprising. Romney won Minnesota in 2008 easily and Colorado usually doesn’t swing to a conservative. We can dismiss Missouri’s meaningless straw poll primary because no one campaigned there but Santorum. As surprising as Santorum’s wins are, he only picked up 8 more delegates than Romney. He’s still 81 behind the front runner. Have we conservatives become so desperate to rid ourselves of the GOP version of Obama that we’re going to rejoice in excess over an 8 delegate win?

It says a lot about how much the conservative rank and file of the GOP dislikes Romney that a meaningless gain of 8 delegates gets everyone excited. If Santorum is going to win the nomination, he needs to do more than gain a delegate here and there in Caucus states. He needs to sweep Super Tuesday, to the extent that he can considering he isn’t on the Virginia ballot. Absent a sweep, how can Santorum possibly win?

How exactly is Santorum going to be able to sweep Super Tuesday. He doesn’t have serious cash on hand so he isn’t going to be able to make massive ad buys like Romney can. He also doesn’t have a massive Super PAC aiding his cause. Santorum’s other problem is that grouchy, vindictive Newt won’t get out of the race because he hates Romney. As it typical of conservatives, we don’t see the forest through the trees. As such, our guys never get out of the race when they can’t win and thus they split our vote allowing the liberal to win. How can Santorum win with no money and Newt still in the race?

At this point I’m going to vote for Rick Santorum in Michigan’s primary on February 28th because I oppose Mitt Romney. Santorum is the most conservative candidate remaining and he deserves the votes of conservatives. As much as I would like Santorum to beat Romney, there’s little chance of that happening. Certainly not with Newt hanging around for no legitimate reason. If Newt ditches the race, maybe Santorum has an outside chance.

When Romney wins the nomination we conservatives are going to have a major choice to make. Do we vote for the socialism of Mitt Romney, which differs from Obama’s only in terms of which group of businesses and Wall Street investors the government will side with, or do we stay home on election day and allow Obama to win. We can hope for a Santorum upset but we shouldn’t be terribly excited right now. We have some serious choices to make, at this point our options are unthinkably bad.

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Do We Know Who Mitt Romney Is Or What He Believes?

February 1, 2012 21 Comments

Mitt Romney won the Florida primary last night and seems poised to take the GOP nomination. His biggest asset seems to be that Republicans think he’s electable. He certainly has the old guard establishment on his side. Make no mistake, Mitt Romney is a terrific businessman who knows how to make money. Obviously he’s shown the ability to lead whether it’s in business, at the Olympics or as Governor of Massachusetts.

But for all of that, do we even really know who Mitt Romney is or what he believes? If there’s one thing that has been evident at the first 19 debates it’s that Mitt Romney has trouble articulating the conservative position. He says he’s for tax cuts but his economic plan is convoluted with 50+ points. It doesn’t take 50 points to adequately explain the conservative position on the economy. Romney has never opposed regulatory action by government, he seems not interested in reducing regulation but rather he seems interested in shifting it around to make it more “economical.” 

Obviously we all know about Romneycare, which is essentially the state version of Obamacare. Romney has defended the plan and seems to only oppose Obamacare because it’s a Federal plan not a state plan. When did it become conservative to support a massive state run health care system? Romney weasels out of this question by talking about states rights, something most conservatives love to hear. But doing so only deflects attention away from the fact that Romney signed into law a massive state run health care system.

On issues of life, Romney’s record is the opposite of what he is now saying on the campaign trail. When he ran for Governor just a decade ago he said he was committed to the pro-choice cause. He said he believed in parental consent for a minor to have an abortion but supported judge’s having the ability to overrule parents.  

Yes, Romney says that he’s had a change of heart. But does that change of heart mean he will nominate only pro-life judges to the Supreme Court? Romney has never committed to such a litmus test. In fact, Romney hasn’t talked about judges at all. If we look at his record as Governor, he did little more than appoint liberal Democrats to the bench. Perhaps it’s true, in a state as blue as Massachusetts Romney couldn’t nominate conservatives. But that still leaves the question open, what sort of judge will Romney appoint? We have no idea.

Just a decade ago Romney called himself a progressive Republican. Not surprising given his upbringing. Mitt’s father George was Governor of Michigan in the 60′s. He had good things to say about radical leftist Saul Alinsky. Romney went the liberal Cranbrook School in metro Detroit as a child. Mitt was raised by liberals, educated by liberals and a decade ago identified himself as a progressive liberal.

With all of that in mind are we to believe he had a sudden change of heart? Romney references no moment when he realized the leftist cause was wrong. Even if we believe that Romney has had a conversion to the conservative cause, he doesn’t have the foundation to serve as President. We’re talking about a man who until he decided to run for President was a leftist.

Let’s say he’s rejected liberalism, it doesn’t mean he now has an intellectually conservative foundation. Quite the opposite, he still has his liberal foundation. It shows itself when he defends Romneycare but opposes Obamacare. It shows itself when he suggests regulatory reform that doesn’t actually make government smaller. It shows itself in a 50+ point economic plan.

In short, we don’t really know who Mitt Romney is. We don’t know what he really believes. We have no idea how he’s going to govern. He had no conservative foundation, much less a conservative Christian foundation. This is the man the Republican Party thinks will defeat Obama? This is the man the GOP thinks is going to govern better than Obama? Maybe Romney really is a conservative but there’s a much greater chance that Mitt Romney will be the second coming of Richard Nixon, just without the tapes and criminal activity. His life long record suggests as such.

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January 26th Republican Debate Review

January 27, 2012 Leave a comment

Last night was the last debate for a month. (the peasants rejoice!) This time Wolf Blitzer moderated for CNN, a minor step up from Peter King. Blitzer spent 10 minutes a piece on moon colonies and whose wife would make the best First Lady. All terribly important issues facing America today. On several occasions when candidates tried to address Obama, Blitzer stepped in and tried to get them to fight with their fellow candidates. The first half hour was spent listening to Newt and Romney cat fight while issues such as venture socialism (Solyndra), Fast and Furious and judges were ignored. In other words, the expected left-wing bias of CNN at play.

Before we go any further can we put an issue to rest once and for all? Newt’s firm was paid $300,000 a year for five or six years from Freddie Mac. Such money is peanuts for Freddie Mac, which sees billions pass through it every year. This is a non issue. Likewise, Mitt Romney’s tax returns are a non issue. He has a blind trust, which means he has no idea what the trustee is investing in. Sort of the definition of a blind trust don’t you think Newt? Also in a pathetic attempt to attack Romney ABC has discovered that Mitt’s tax return didn’t include $1,700 in income from a Swiss account. (again a blind account) In a tax return of $20 million this is the best ABC can come up with. Can we put this pathetic nonsense to rest already?

Rick Santorum perhaps did the best tonight because he tried to get Newt and Romney to stop cat fighting with each other. He came off as the most reasonable last night. His answers weren’t bad either. He displays a terrific knowledge of Central and South American politics and he has a clear vision for our nation in that region. Something that couldn’t be said for the other three candidates. Santorum was perhaps at his best when he subtly brought up the life issue during his monologue about his wife. Over all a terrific performance that would probably win Florida if Newt weren’t in the way.

Romney clearly got the best of Newt last night. Newt thought he was going to make a big show of Mitt’s investments in Freddie Mac and Goldman Sachs and was completely shot down by the fact that Mitt has a blind trust. Thus Newt looked like a complete fool. It never got any better for Newt last night. He didn’t have any zingers, no answers that wowed anyone. It was a poor performance, really three in a row for Newt. Let’s face it, the first South Carolina debate was his best by far. It’s all been down hill from there.

While Romney got the best of Newt a couple of times, he looked like a complete fool on occasions. Santorum had his big above the fray comment trying to get Newt and Mitt to knock it off. Blitzer then comes back after a break and tries to get it going again. Romney took the bait and went on the attack when he could have and should have taken the higher ground like Santorum had suggested. Over all though it was a decent performance. It should be concerning to the rank and file though that Romney never seems to answer a question with any specifics. For a candidate whose conservatism is questioned you would think he would at least make an effort to propose a few specific conservative plans.

Ron Paul as usual was a waste of space. His policy with regard to Cuba and South America is ridiculous. We should not be trading with Castro and we should not be letting Chavez run wild in South America. Trade is great, it’s one way to limit Chavez’ influence. But it isn’t the only way and we should be directly opposing the leftist dictator.

Win: Santorum took the high ground, the question is whether conservatives will be fed up with Newt enough to swing to him.

Place: While Romney never took the high ground, he got the best of Newt. But will he ever adequately defend the conservative position on anything?

Show: Newt hasn’t had a good debate since a week ago Monday. Having a month off from debates won’t be good for him though.

Big Loser: Wolf Blitzer and CNN once again proved their left-wing bias by trying to get the candidates to focus on themselves rather than Obama and by asking absurd questions on absurd topics meant to hurt one particular candidate.

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January 23rd Republican Debate Review

January 24, 2012 2 Comments

NBC and Brian Williams have to be the worst hosts for a debate so far. To begin the debate Williams declared that the audience had been told not to cheer. Meaning of course that the audience was censored from displaying approval of candidates answers or disapproval of NBC’s questions. A slick move to prevent editorial comment from Republicans and to prevent a repeat of Newt receiving wild applause. Typical left-wing bias, we can’t have Republicans getting cheers.

Williams spent the first half hour wasting everyone’s time on electability and “scandals” that are anything but. He brought in a couple of sidekicks, who read their questions from note cards like they’re at a student council debate in high school, who asked a bunch of obscure questions about sugar subsidies and NASA. At one point the candidates were questioned about Terri Schaivo, who was killed in 2005.

The economy is in shambles, Obamacare is a noose around the neck of business and taxpayers and the national debt has skyrocketed during Obama’s term. But NBC wants to talk about sugar subsidies and Terri Schaivo. This debate, which aired on network television, did everything in its power to avoid having the Republicans attack Obama. In doing that, NBC protected Obama from attack and they made the Republicans look petty, out of touch and irrelevant. If you think that wasn’t intentional you’re out of your mind. NBC News runs stories about GOP candidates that are 80% negative. GE still has a large stake in NBC and GE’s CEO is still actively involved in the Obama administration. Last night’s debate was a boring sham.

Newt and Romney went at it over matters that don’t matter. Romney’s releasing his tax records, which is itself a nonsense issue. Romney went on the offensive against Newt concerning the work his non-profit did for Freddie Mac. Romney, while yammering about Freddie, suddenly launched into Newt for supposedly lobbying for Medicare Part D. The Freddie Mac stuff is just stupid. Who cares if Newt’s company had a minor consulting role there? A $300,000 yearly contract for Newt’s company isn’t a big deal. And honestly, who cares if Newt played lobbyist for the Rx drug bill? Are we to pretend like Mitt Romney didn’t engage with lobbyists when he was governor? How is it ok to get lobbied but if you’re the lobbier then you’re evil?

Romney’s attack, while very skillfully presented does have one piece of faulty logic which anyone who paid close attention to the debate will figure out. Romney had accused Newt of being forced to resign Congress in disgrace earlier in the debate. Just a few minutes later Romney accused Newt of “influence peddling.” Now how in the world can someone who resigned in disgrace engage in influence peddling just a couple years later? Most people don’t listen to those who resign in disgrace as such Romney’s attacks aren’t quite as strong as you would think.

Santorum did a very good job last night. He gave great answers most of the time and he ultimately won the debate by staying out of the Romney v Newt tussle. There’s no doubt that Santorum is strong on foreign policy, he shined in his answer about Iran.

Ron Paul lost Florida by declaring he would engage with Fidel Castro. The large Cuban community in South Florida, most of whom are Republicans, won’t like that much. He annoyed everyone else by accusing the US of engaging in acts of war against Iran by not trading with them. Further proving that Ron Paul is far out of the mainstream of the Republican Party.

Ultimately there were no knockout blows last night. No one completely screwed up and while Romney did a fairly good job going after Newt none of his jabs were particularly new and none of them were knockout blows. Newt needed to go after Romney a little more. Newt acted like the front runner last night when he didn’t engage. A fat and sassy Newt isn’t going to win in Florida, much less the nomination. He needs to debate like a junk yard dog if he wants to win.

One other note, I had the opportunity to watch a few minutes of the post debate analysis from Andrea Mitchell. It’s bad enough that Brian Williams protected Obama by not asking any questions that would lead the candidates to attack him. But then to have Mitchell declare that if Mitt falters there will be a brokered convention where the party big wigs will talk Mitch Daniels or someone else into running was just appalling. What Mitchell was really saying is that these candidates you just watched for two hours are boobs and your votes don’t matter. Saying that does little more than make Obama look Presidential, which is exactly what NBC is going for.

Win: Santorum stayed out of the fray and delivered a solid debate performance.

Place: Romney just edges out Newt but not in knockout fashion.

Show: Newt needs to return to debating like a junk yard dog, otherwise Romney will eventually knock him out.

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Debates Are GOP’s Version of Campaign Finance Reform

January 23, 2012 Leave a comment

Newt won the South Carolina primary on Saturday in stunning fashion. Left for dead after New Hampshire, Newt roared back to win in commanding fashion. We saw several things at play in South Carolina. Newt is a fighter, which is something many people forgot. This is the guy who led the GOP revolution in 1994 wherein we won the House for the first time in 40 years. It shouldn’t be a surprise when Newt digs deep in an election. We also saw Romney stumble. Whether he thought the election was in the bag and coasted or whether he is getting weary of campaigning remains to be seen.

The biggest thing we saw in South Carolina was the importance of the debates. Debates mattered more than money and more than momentum, both of which were owned by Romney. Dick Morris suggested that the debates are a version of campaign finance reform. This is an interesting position worth exploring. Is there any doubt this week that the debates mattered more than anything else in South Carolina? They’re essentially a free market solution to the supposed problem of money in politics. On stage everyone is more or less an equal. Each candidate has an oppertunity to wow everyone or disappoint. Last week Newt clearly wowed people, more than originally believed while Mitt Romney disappointed.

Now we move onto Florida. Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the polls and has been spending millions on ads in the state. If Florida plays like South Carolina did, it’s the debates taking place tonight and Thursday that will determine the winner. If Newt wows everyone again he could very well take Florida. If Romney storms back, he could maintain his lead and win the state. We are essentially seeing a two person race at this point. Santorum has an outside chance to really wow at the debates and win. Ron Paul has no chance, largely because his views are so far outside the mainstream of the Republican Party in Florida.

Newt still has a lot of negatives. We here at Steven Birn Speaks will not be endorsing a candidate, largely because we aren’t in love with any of them. Newt still has a self destructive side to him. Things are going well for him right now. He’s playing the media like a fiddle, he’s winning elections, he’s giving terrific speeches and he’s blowing everyone out of the water during the debates. But what happens when things start to stumble a bit? Last time he attacked capitalism, we all know what happened in the 90′s.

Romney on the other hand looked incredibly weak last week. For all of those who insist that Mitt is the only guy who can knock off Obama, last week suggested that may not be the case. His debate performance was pathetic. People are beginning to notice that he never really says anything. He is plastic compared to Newt, who comes off as human. (almost to human) Romney can change all of this with a stellar debate performance tonight and Thursday. But let’s be honest, steady eddie has never turned in a stellar debate performance. He’s steady but never stellar. He wins when the frontrunner messes up.

Tonight’s debate ought to be very interesting. We may know a lot more about the direction of this race by 11pm this evening. All of Romney’s money may not save him from a terrible debate tonight. If that isn’t campaign finance reform, what is? Debates are the free market solution to money in politics. They’re the great equalizer.

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January 19th Republican Debate Review

January 20, 2012 Leave a comment

The Republicans held another debate, this time hosted by CNN. I enjoyed the fact that there was only one moderator tonight. But don’t you find it irritating that after 16 or 17 debates CNN has to tell us how a debate works at the beginning? Come on guys, we’re not that dumb.

It was appalling that CNN began the debate talking about Newt’s ex giving an interview to ABC. But Newt handled it very well and went on the offensive against her and the media. This story is old news. We all know what happened at the end of Newt’s second marriage. At this point the question is why is the ex coming forward now? Is this being staged by the Romney campaign or is she just a bitter old woman who never got over Newt leaving her. Before anyone gives the ex any sympathy, don’t forget she was the other woman in Newt’s first marriage. But again, didn’t we all know that years ago?

While Newt won the first five minutes of the debate, he didn’t win the rest. Newt’s masterful attack on the media was not parlayed into attacks on Romney and Santorum. Instead Newt seemed distracted most of the night, which while understandable isn’t going to win him any votes. His answers to most of the questions were fine but not the sort of thing that wins elections. Furthermore, he didn’t do terribly well against blistering attacks from Rick Santorum and he had no response to Romney’s accusation that he appears only once in Reagan’s diary. This after we’ve heard from Newt for months about how he was involved in the Reagan 80′s.

Speaking of Santorum  he was the winner last night. He did a masterful job attacking Romney on Romneycare and the pro-life issue. He attacked Newt over his support for an individual mandate and his grandiose proposals. No one defends the life issue better than Rick Santorum. My wife complains that when others are talking Santorum has a tendancy to roll his eyes. He needs to knock that off.

But for all he did well last night, Santorum’s inner big government conservative came out with his support for a modified version of SOPA. Santorum lives in a dream land where the internet hasn’t been a free for all over the last 15 years. He apparently wants some government involvement in the protection of copyrights online. The other three suggest that those whose copyright has been violated can already sue under current law. Why isn’t that good enough for Santorum? How is giving government the power to sift through websites looking for copyright violations conservative?

Romney looked better last night than he did on Monday. He not so subtly jabbed Newt at the beginning by declaring he’s been married for 42 years. He does a good job defending capitalism from absurd Bain Capital attacks. He does a generally good job on immigration. It was grotesque to hear CNN quote Romney’s father concerning releasing a decade’s worth of tax returns. What an unfair and nasty question that was. Romney looks like he’s being a weasel by not releasing the returns. But at the end of the day, most Americans, myself included, barely understand their own tax return. But we’re supposed to look at Romney’s and understand it? The tax return issue is just class envy being pushed by those involved in class warfare.

At the end of last night we were once again exposed to why conservatives don’t trust Mitt Romney. Romneycare is a noose around Romney’s neck. He defends it yet declares Obamacare needs to be repealed. While healthcare may be a state issue, how is it conservative to support socialism only at the state level? Even on the life issue Romney seemed to suggest that he doesn’t have a litmus test for judges. Granted, he was talking about state court trial judges. But does he or doesn’t he have a litmus test for Supreme Court appointees? Will he commit to nominating only pro-life judges to the Supreme Court? There’s a reason why conservatives are looking to someone other than Romney.

Ron Paul was largely forgotten about last night, so we didn’t have to listen to his weasely laugh all night. Thank you CNN. Interestingly foreign policy never came up so Paul was never given the opportunity to look like a complete fool. Which of course helps him because his economic policy is generally sound even if his social policy is not.

Win: Santorum won the debate by hacking both Newt and Romney. He did a very good job.

Place: Romney looked more alive last night, but who are we kidding here? A Santorum win is really a victory for Romney.

Show: Newt’s first five minutes were masterful. The other 115 minutes not so much.

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Can Romney Win In The South?

January 11, 2012 Leave a comment

Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire Primary last night. Considering the fact that Romney was up in New Hampshire by double digits for the entire race, you would think the media wouldn’t get overly excited. Instead the press nearly crowned Romney with the nomination. All of this before more conservative states vote.

The real race was for second place, which was run by Ron Paul. Jon Huntsman came in third place. We will summarily dismiss Huntsman in light of the fact that exit polls showed that 51% of his voters wouldn’t mind a second Obama term. In other words, Huntsman was supported by Democrats who will not be voting down south in GOP primaries.

Paul was supported by a large number of independents and a handful of Kusinich Democrats. Once again, Paul has trouble courting the Republican vote. It isn’t overly surprising that in Iowa and New Hampshire someone like Ron Paul does well. These are two states that aren’t staunchly Republican and have a lot of independent voters who are allowed to vote in GOP primaries and caucuses. While the Ronulans are reading great things into Paul’s second place finish, it’s unlikely to translate down south.

The big question is whether Romney can ride his New Hampshire victory to victory down south. He has two things going for him. First, without a doubt Mitt has more money than everyone else. That goes a long way. Second, the candidate that folks in South Carolina and Florida have liked the most, Newt Gingrich, has made outrageously left-wing attacks on Romney. It’s to the point where giants like we here at Steven Birn Speaks are attacking Newt, even lesser known pundits like Rush Limbaugh have gone on the warpath against Newt.

In short, the conservative challenger to Romney in the south has outraged conservatives and thus played right into Romney’s hand. It would be nice to think that Rick Santorum could pull all of Newt’s votes. But the reality is that while Santorum had a great ground game in Iowa and was able to pull off a second place finish there because of it, he has no significant ground game in South Carolina or Florida. Worse for him, he doesn’t have much money. Even worse, Newt continues his Bain attacks on Romney which is only making Mitt look like a conservative being attacked by a Democrat thus solidifying Mitt’s dubious conservative credentials. That isn’t any good for Santorum.

This is Romney’s race to lose now. The coronation wasn’t last night, it will be after he wins in both South Carolina and Florida. Once he wins in two southern, largely Republican states he’ll be able to knock out the funding for all the other candidates, save Ron Paul, and coast to the nomination. As disgusting as it is, it looks like Romney is going to be the nominee barring a shocking upset by Rick Santorum down south. Such can happen but not so long as Newt is attacking Romney from the left.

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