GOP’s Problem Isn’t Conservative Viewpoints

March 20, 2013 Leave a comment

When Americans hear conservative plans they tend to support them by clear majorities. Especially so when those plans are lined up against liberal proposals. However, when voters hear that Republicans support those conservative plans suddenly voters are turned off. The problem the Republicans face heading into the 2014 and 2016 elections isn’t conservative political positions. The problem they face is that people don’t like and don’t trust the party. Of course, the party is interpreting the 2012 election all wrong. They want to move the party to the left when in reality they need to be rehabing their image while coordinating a response to the left-wing press.

In the last two elections the GOP nominated candidates who weren’t conservative. John McCain has always been more comfortable being the “reasonable” compromiser as he sides with Democrats over conservative Republicans. Mitt Romney ran for Governor of Massachusetts as a progressive Republican and largely governed like one. He was never comfortable articulating conservative positions and when pressed often retreated to his liberal foundation. From the defeat of two moderate to liberal Republicans the GOP has decided the party needs to move even further left. They apparently learned nothing.

The answer to the GOP’s woes isn’t to provide illegals with amnesty, give up on the right to life issue or support homosexual marriage. The answer doesn’t lie in abandoning social policy or the legion of Christian conservative voters who have been responsible for GOP victories for most of the last three decades. The answer lies in sticking with conservative principles because the country remains a center right country. The political end of this problem ought to be easy but with the GOP nothing can ever be easy because the progressives who run the party don’t really like the conservatives. They just use us to further their own power, which they don’t have on any real level in government because moderate to liberal candidates couldn’t beat Obama.

The GOP’s biggest problem is messaging. It isn’t so much the people who deliver the message, Sarah Palin aside, that is the problem. The problem is that our candidates and ideas are under relentless attack from the liberal media. Just look at the sequestration debate last month. The country supported the cuts but the media presented the cuts as catastrophic and they presented the Republicans as mean, evil and hateful. During the second Presidential debate last year Candy Crowley shut down the Benghazi issue and may have won the election for Obama by declaring the President right and Romney wrong. That she was wrong is an after thought, the damage had already been done.

Fair or not there isn’t much we can do about the media. They’re going to present Mitt Romney as Thurston Howell III and John Kerry as a man of the people even though Kerry has double the assets of Romney. What the Republicans need to do is figure out a way around this. It begins by sticking to principles despite the media’s relentless attacks. The reason why people believed Crowley rather than Romney is because Romney wasn’t trustworthy in the first place. Why wasn’t he trustworthy? Because no one believed he was a conservative, no one believed that he truly believed anything he said. Switching positions on homosexual marriage like Sen. Portman just because your kid says he’s gay isn’t the way to go. It suggests that one doesn’t have a base morality or a base belief and thus are subject to whatever will please others.

Despite the party being a mess we have a number of potential 2016 Presidential candidates who seem to have a basic moral core and can articulate their positions without pandering. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio in particular demonstrate these qualities. Even when they disagree, their positions are long standing and as such they clearly aren’t pandering for votes. Those guys and a number of others need to be the face of the party. We need to get rid of the consultants and liberal party leadership that gave us McCain and Romney. Their liberals failed, the answer for the future isn’t to listen to these losers and move left. The answer is to stick with our conservative principles because the country still agrees with us while at the same time rehabing the Party image. We can do this but not if the party moves left.

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Rand Paul Began 2016 Campaign Yesterday

March 7, 2013 3 Comments

Rand Paul went to Washington yesterday to fight the Obama administration’s assertion that it has the Constitutional right to attack American citizens on our soil via drone attacks. Sen. Paul’s filibuster was apparently spontaneous but a cynic may believe he is seeking publicity in anticipation of a run for President in 2016. Sen. Paul certainly got publicity, but not from the mainstream press which largely ignored his filibuster. We’re also seeing in the Senate a greater divide between young, Tea Party elected Senators such as Paul, Rubio, Lee and Cruz and old guard moderates like Graham and McCain both of whom wonder what the fuss is about.

Sen. Paul did a number of things yesterday, all of them good for both himself and the country. He solidified the libertarians behind him. All of his old man’s followers are now solidly behind the Senator. They wavered after he endorsed Romney last summer, now they’re fully behind him. He didn’t just solidify a libertarian following, he got a lot of conservatives on board as well. Those in the Tea Party were excited about his speech and the issues he discussed. These are people who largely supported the War on Terror but who have become increasingly disturbed by drones. In short, Paul broadened his base of support. That can only be good for him and the GOP should he run for President.

Most importantly though Sen. Paul brought to the forefront the issue of executive overreach on drones. In short he made Obama, who ran in 2008 as an anti-war, civil liberties focused candidate, look like a massive hypocrite. The issue here isn’t whether Obama is actually going to use a drone to attack an American in the US. The issue here is that the President and his Attorney General won’t say that the President doesn’t have that right under the Constitution. Our Constitution requires a warrant for arrest and a trial by jury wherein the accused may question those who offer evidence against him. The administration seems to think it has the right to assassinate Americans without arresting them or providing them with a jury trial.

Where are the Democrats on this? Last night they objected to voting on a non-binding resolution that said little more than the President doesn’t have the right to drone attack Americans. This is a party that spent years attacking President Bush on alleged civil liberty violations that never came anywhere near assassination via drone. Then Sen. Obama was a civil libertarian, complaining about warrantless wiretaps and torture. Today the warrantless wiretaps continue and now President Obama believes he has the right to drone attack Americans on US soil. Were his civil liberties concerns during the Bush administration simply a cynical political ploy? It’s looking like they were. The same can be said for most of the Democrats.

Rand Paul seems to be infinitely more likable than his whiny father. He’s more reasonable, he’s willing to negotiate and compromise. By that I mean he isn’t going to sell away the farm in a negotiation but he’s willing to give up x in order to get the y that he finds more important. Yesterday’s filibuster might as well have been the kickoff for his 2016 campaign. Obviously we have a lot to learn about him and all the other candidates who might run for the GOP nomination. For those of us on the libertarian and conservative end of the GOP we must ask ourselves whether there is another conservative who can beat not the Democrats nominee but the moderate’s candidate. Paul has a built in voting block, maybe we ought to think about getting behind the conservative with the best chance to win because you know if Jeb Bush runs the moderate wing will fully back him and they won’t have another moderate challenger. There is a lot of time but this is something conservatives need to think about. We don’t want our votes spread out among three candidates again.

UPDATE: Eric Holder wrote a fairly terse letter to Sen. Paul claiming that the President doesn’t have authority to use a drone to attack an American “not engage in combat” on US soil. The first question to ask is why did this admission take so long? The second question is what if an American is engaged in terrorist plotting on American soil? Are they subject to drone attack? Why can’t they be arrested and tried for treason and half a dozen other criminal offenses? For the time being it appears Sen. Paul is appeased.

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Battle For The Soul Of The GOP

December 4, 2012 25 Comments

The GOP nominated a man for President who is only conservative when standing next to President Obama. Not surprisingly Mitt Romney couldn’t get Republicans to the polls to vote for him. He ended up will fewer votes than the loathed and despised John McCain, in Ohio alone he got 100,000 fewer votes. Conservatives never truly warmed up to Romney and fence sitting Republican voters couldn’t get past the fact that Romney is a Mormon. We were told that Romney was the only guy in the primary who could beat Obama. He didn’t even come close because no one believed he was a conservative.

So what has been the GOP establishment response to Romney’s defeat? Rather than take the blame for delivering the party yet another defeat (Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney…) the establishment has more or less suggested ridding the party of conservatives. We’re now told that we should change our position on illegal immigration, homosexual marriage, abortion, taxes and government spending. In other words, we should go back to the founding principles of the Republican Party. We should once again become a northeastern, liberal, big government, overthrow of Christian faith and morality party. That’s what the Party was when it was created in the 1850′s as a replacement for the big government Whigs, who were themselves an offshoot of the big government, Hamiltonian Federalists.

With this in mind it should come as no surprise that the only Republican in Washington with any power is purging his caucus of conservatives. Speaker John Boehner is removing conservatives from key committee chairs. Meanwhile Boehner offered Obama an $800 billion tax increase yesterday, signed onto by Paul Ryan. Obama quickly rejected the proposal, you knew he would. Obama sees an opportunity to destroy the Republican Party forever by blaming them for the fiscal cliff. Destroying the GOP is more important to Obama than suffering middle class Americans, after all the GOP is the enemy. The fact though is that the GOP is in prime position to destroy itself without Obama’s help.

There is a battle for the soul of the Republican Party. It is a battle we are not winning. The last two Presidential losers were handed to us by the progressive establishment which refuses to take the blame for them. In fact, they claim it’s conservatives fault that they lost. We have a House that is full of conservatives but which can’t rid themselves of the establishment puppet Speaker Boehner. We’re going to see an uprising on the right in 2014, it won’t be aimed at Democrats. Instead it will be a primary battle between conservatives and progressive, establishment candidates.

The bigger battle for the soul will take place in 2015 and early 2016 during the Presidential primary. The establishment is already vetting its own candidates, be they Jeb Bush, Chris Christie or some other liberal. Conservatives seem inclined towards Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. There is another conservative though who might be able to bridge the gap between conservatives and the Ron Paul libertarian crazy wing, that’s Sen. Rand Paul. Rand is infinitely more likable and reasonable than his old man, which will appeal to conservatives. His old man alone appeals to libertarians.

We conservatives need to be prepared for this battle. We don’t have the money or the clout that the establishment has. But we need only look back to 1980 when the establishment backed George Bush over Ronald Reagan. We won that primary fight, we can win the 2016 primary fight. But we have to unite behind one candidate. We cannot allow the establishment to split us with three or four conservatives while they all unite behind some dreadful liberal. The battle for the soul of the GOP is on, let’s up we conservatives don’t split ourselves and lose the party.

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Obama’s 21st Century Class Warfare

November 20, 2012 8 Comments

The fiscal cliff is staring us straight in the face. Early next month the debt ceiling will be reached and on January 1st taxes increase for everyone. The election resulted in Obama believing he has a mandate from the 47% who don’t pay income taxes to take from those who do pay taxes. Obama has created the class war of the 21st century. It’s quite different from the leftist class war of the 20th century. This time rather than the war being a battle between workers and business, the class war is between tax payers and tax takers. Obama has shifted the battle.

The 20th century began with the first US President inaugurated in the century’s assassination by a radical leftist anarchist. It saw the bloody Russian Revolution and the millions of murders by Lenin, Stalin and other Soviets. It saw Germany’s nationalist left-wingers pillage and murder during the reign of Hitler, to say nothing of events in China and North Korea. The first half of 20th century also saw violent union strikes throughout the US and Western Europe. All of these events, whether leftist governments murdering or violent union strikes have their root in the Marxist idea of class warfare.

By the end of the 20th century the leftists largely grew weary of bloodshed, perhaps because the average man on the street was tired of war. The progressive left shifted from violence, be it in or out of government, to achieve class warfare during the last decades of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Obama is the first American President to represent the new left-wing vision of class warfare. It is no longer a warfare marked by violent union strikes or violent overthrows of government. It is a “democratic” class warfare where the tax takers rise up against the tax payers and take over government to their own benefit.

Obama won re-election in part because 47 million Americans are dependant on food stamps. That represents 75% of his vote total. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, food stamps use is higher than nearly every other state. Obama promises freebies from the government, he promises to raise taxes in order go give his voters said freebies. Is it any wonder why he won? Not only is food stamp use up, so are the rolls of Social Security disability which increased dramatically during Obama’s first term. You would think disability would be largely immune from economic conditions but not under Obama. He’s increasing his base of voters via welfare.

Fast forward to the fiscal cliff, there’s a good chance Obama digs in and refuses to deal with the Republicans. He doesn’t have to worry about re-election and he likely believes the Democrats will win no matter what in 2016 because he has set up the conditions for a prolonged 21st century version of class warfare. Obama doesn’t benefit when the economy is doing well, he doesn’t benefit when taxes are cut. He only benefits when he can turn the nation’s problems into a battle between tax payers and tax earners. Obama isn’t interested in unity, he’s interested in us versus them. His campaign was us versus them, his first administration was as well.

The GOP doesn’t have much time to figure out how to counter Obama’s class warfare. They already failed miserably with Mitt Romney. In the short term, Speaker Boehner needs to figure out a way to at least come close to Obama in media manipulation. Boehner cannot afford to take all of the blame for the fiscal cliff. In the long term, the GOP needs to figure out the best way to counter the left’s new version of class warfare while holding to our conservative principles. It took conservatives nearly 80 years to figure it out in the 20th century. We cannot afford to wait another 80 years this time around. The left’s 20th century class warfare turned out to be unsuccessful. We must make sure this new form of class warfare is equally unsuccessful.

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Romney Campaign Incompetence Will Lead To Obama Victory

September 17, 2012 25 Comments

There was a time just a few weeks ago where I would have suggested Mitt Romney had a 50% chance of winning. At this point it’s become abundantly clear he isn’t going to win. As usual the Republicans picked a wimp candidate, a moderate of course, who has no chance of winning. It seems we Republicans will never learn our lesson. The voting public will always pick an authentic liberal Democrat over a moderate Republican who pretends to be conservative. Ford, Bush 41 once we figured out he was a moderate, Dole, McCain and now Romney. The conservatives, Reagan and Bush, won.

Mitt Romney is a wimp. Oh yes, he tried to be forceful last week after the Muslims started attacking our Embassy’s. Then the Obama press went into overdrive attacking Romney while ignoring Obama’s foreign policy blunders. The result? We haven’t heard from Romney since. He’s been cowed into silence. He’s made no statements of any importance, is he even campaigning? Nearly a week has gone by and we’ve heard nothing from the Republican Presidential candidate. Mind you we’re only seven weeks before an election. To say nothing of Paul Ryan, who has all but disappeared since the GOP Convention. Where are these people? Are they doing anything?

Where was Romney last week when our credit rating was cut again? He issued a bland press release but did he say much of anything? If he said something the press ignored it and/or it was another throw away applause line in a mediocre speech. Romney needs to make forceful statements, he needs to be holding major speeches. You know, the kind where he puts on a tie and acts all Presidential. The middle east is falling apart and our credit rating is cut yet we hear nothing from Romney in nearly a week because the press attacked him last time he criticized Obama. How is this going to lead Romney to victory?

Unfortunately the Romney plan seems to be spending a fortune on ads and hoping they’ll do the trick. It seemed to work in the primary where he was able to define all of his opponents as a conservative heretic, which was always rich coming from the not conservative candidate. Obama however can’t be defined by Romney. He’s the President, we already know who he is and we  have a good idea what his record is. Romney needs to make the case for himself both in speech and in advertisement. Yet he never does that. He never touts his own plans, he never offers his Obamacare alternative, he never explains in detail what he’ll do in the middle east. He never says anything about himself, other than his stellar Bain Capital and Olympic leadership a decade ago. That isn’t going to cut it.

Politico is reporting that there is all out war between Romney staffers. That comes as no surprise. From the Paul Ryan selection on this campaign has unraveled, it’s been all over the place. The final night of the GOP Convention should have signaled there was a problem. The Clint Eastwood speech was a mess and it took away from Romney’s speech. The candidate’s speech didn’t offer any substance. Put together and it should have been clear there was a problem. Whether it was infighting or incompetence, there was a problem and it was evident. Since the Convention all Romney has done is come out forcefully on the middle east last week before becoming silent thanks to a one sided, conspiring press corp. That is evidence of the infighting in action as we have two very different responses to the same issue and a very weak looking candidate.

If the GOP cannot win this election then they need to get out of the business of politics. We have a President who has presided over the worst economy since the Depression, we have 23 million unemployed, a national debt that has increased $5 trillion in four years, 47 million Americans on food stamps, taxmageddon staring us down on January 1st all while the middle east and Obama’s foreign policy blowing up in our faces. If the GOP can’t win against this President then they can’t win period. The establishment gave us Mitt Romney, just like they gave us John McCain in 2008. When Romney loses, and unless things change dramatically he will lose, it will be on the establishment to explain to us why they forced such a pathetic candidate on us.

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Joe Biden Calls GOP Squealing Pigs, Plans To Crash Convention

August 22, 2012 4 Comments

Vice President Joe Biden is the gift that keeps on giving. This man has created more problems for the Obama campaign then Romney can create. He screwed up the homosexual marriage announcement, he got Obama off message last week with his ridiculous accusation that the GOP would “put y’all back in chains” complete with phony southern accent. Now he’s claiming the Republicans are like squealing pigs. His speeches are getting less and less dignified, which only makes Paul Ryan look more qualified. Biden is coming to Michigan this week, I almost can’t wait. He’s sure to put his foot in his mouth again and that can only be good for the GOP.

But it gets even better. Joe Biden is planning on holding campaign events in Tampa next Monday and Tuesday. That’s right, Biden is going to crash the GOP Convention. There are several ways to look at this. Obviously this is completely undignified, not to mention incredibly narcissistic and arrogant on the part of the Obama campaign. It is unprecedented for a President or Vice President to crash the other party’s Convention, holding rallies and such in the same town. Generally candidates back off a little bit during the other party’s convention, not so with Obama’s. Obama wants his campaign in the forefront. But rather than do it himself, he’s sending Biden.

So while this is incredibly arrogant and inappropriate, the Republicans must be jumping for joy. Biden will almost certainly say something completely outlandish, he won’t be able to help himself with so many Republicans in town. The opportunity to lampoon Biden throughout the Convention will likely be taken by nearly every speaker. It’s almost to easy though it serves an important purpose. Joe Biden is a heartbeat away from becoming President. Do we really want four more years of that sort of risk?

But the best part about Obama sending Biden to Tampa is that the GOP can respond in Charlotte the next week. As Reince Priebus points out, the Republicans can see what sort of shenanigans Biden pulls in Tampa and respond ten fold in Charlotte. My thought is that the Romney team should send Paul Ryan on a tour of North Carolina during the Democrat Convention. He can give speeches in front of closed factories, have lunch with the chronically unemployed and speak at some of the retirement complexes which are becoming more popular in North Carolina. He doesn’t even have to go to Charlotte, though I’m sure with its 10% unemployment there are plenty of closed factories and businesses and plenty of chronically unemployed people to have lunch with.

Obama said his Presidency would be post-partisan, he was going to be the guy to put the partisan bickering aside and do what’s right for the country. His Presidency of course has been the most bitterly partisan in history. Obama is at the center of that but Joe Biden is awfully close. Just in the month of August Biden has proven that the administration is bitterly partisan. The only thing he hasn’t done, in public anyway, is snort like a pig at the Republicans. Otherwise he’s engaged in personal attacks, baseless innuendo and now he’s crashing the Convention. All of this while not engaging in a serious discussion of Barack Obama’s vision for a second term.

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Ron Paul Is Trying To Steal The GOP Nomination

May 2, 2012 99 Comments

The Ron Paul supporters, known affectionately around here as Ronulans, are an interesting bunch. You’ll never meet people more committed to a candidate or case, you’ll also never meet people more delusional about their chances of winning. It is true Paul was able to fill a lot of college gyms for campaign events and it’s true that Paul’s passionate supporters will turn out in droves for every single internet poll. But that doesn’t translate into actual votes, something Paul’s largely young following doesn’t seem to understand. Unable to get more than 15% of the Republican vote, now the Ronulans believes he can out maneuver everyone and win the delegate count at the GOP Convention. It is the height of lunacy.

Ron Paul isn’t going to be able to pull off a stunning delegate victory, no matter how much his supports fantasize about it. Mitt Romney is the nominee. While a good 60% of the party didn’t vote for him, 90% or more are prepared to vote for him in the November election. Moreover 90% of the party views him as the legitimate GOP nominee. He won fair and square.That the Ronulans want to pretend like there’s any shot at winning in Tampa is the height of absurdity. That they think Paul can win with an underhanded and illegitimate stealth delegate campaign shows where these people are coming from.

Let’s go into Ronulan fantasy land and pretend that Paul pulls off the stealth delegate maneuver and walks out of Tampa with the nomination. He will not be viewed as the legitimate GOP nominee. It won’t just be the establishment that views matters this way, the rank and file will as well. None of Romney’s primary voters will vote for Paul, ensuring his absolute defeat to Obama. A good portion of non-Romney primary voters will also be turned off by Paul’s underhanded steal of the nomination. At this point a Ron Paul stealth victory ensures that Obama is re-elected. Romney has at least a 33% chance of winning, Paul has a 0% chance.

A Paul stealth victory would be a disaster for the conservative cause. Right now conservatives are in the middle of the GOP, with the establishment to their left and the libertarians to their right. The establishment and the libertarians tend to balance one another, particularly when it comes to Congressional and other local campaigns and issues such as the GOP platform. If Paul pulls off the stealth win, the balance of power in the GOP will be fundamentally and forever altered. The establishment will purge the libertarians from the GOP, this shifting the balance of power left. Make no mistake this will happen. The end result is bad for conservatives and it’s bad for libertarians as well. Whether the libertarians want to admit it or not, their only hope of advancing their cause is in the GOP. Simply put, the overwhelming majority of the country will not vote for the libertarians should they be relegated exclusively to meaningless third parties.

Most of us aren’t particularly happy about Romney’s nomination. He’s a Massachusetts moderate, the worst kind of establishment Republican. Like it or not, he’s the nominee. He’s won most of the state primaries and caucuses. He earned his victory. Libertarians will do nothing for their cause by trying to create a convention battle. They’ll turn most Republicans, who at their base have a sense of fairness about them, against the libertarians. Nothing will bother the rank and file more than Ron Paul seemingly trying to cheat his way into the nomination. Such a move will reflect poorly not only on Paul but on libertarians as well. They will never be trusted again by the very people libertarians need to recruit if they should ever want to make a serious run at the Republican nomination in the future.

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Who Should Romney’s Running Mate Be?

April 14, 2012 5 Comments

A long time reader asked for a run down of potential Romney VP picks. This is a subject that will get tossed around for the next few months until Romney settles on a running mate. There are a lot of good candidates out there but what Romney absolutely must do is pick a conservative. He must shore up the conservative Republican base otherwise he risks alienating what should be the core of his votes. Most of us are already disappointed in a liberal winning the nomination, to pick another liberal would destroy Romney’s chances.

With that in mind, let’s toss out Chris Christie and Condi Rice. I like both of these people but neither one of them is solidly pro-life. If there’s ever a group of people the GOP must appease at all costs with the VP selection it’s the pro-life majority in the party. No one trusts Romney on the subject, if he picks a pro-abortion liberal his candidacy is over. Christie is likely too bombastic and prone to the sort of gaffes the current VP makes on a regular basis but which are never reported by the media. The Governor of New Jersey gets more press coverage for his bombastic comments than the current Vice President gets for his. It would only be worse for Christie if he were the VP, the press would love the opportunity to attack a Republican. Condi would be great, if only she were pro-life.

Everyone wants to talk about Marco Rubio. He would be a great choice. He’s pro-life, thoughtful, the Tea Party likes him and he’s known nationally. There are any number of good things to say about Rubio, he would be a terrific choice. But let’s look at some of his drawbacks. He’s only been a Senator for two years. Before that he was a state Senator in Florida. It sounds awfully familiar to a certain current President. Point being, he doesn’t have a whole lot of experience in DC and equally as problematic he doesn’t have any executive experience. If there’s a drawback with Rubio, it’s this.

A month or so ago the media decided that Romney was going to pick Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno as has running mate. This would be an interesting selection. But what do we know about this guy? Is he pro-life? He was elected Governor in the New Progressive Party Party yet he’s a member of the RNC. He sounds about as conservative as Mitt Romney, in short not very. This guy would get the media going but ultimately he wouldn’t be good for conservatives in the party. Which is perhaps why he may be the selection, it’s an opportunity for the leftists in the GOP to take over once and for all and win without us.

Nikki Haley, Governor of North Carolina, has been tossed around. She’s a Tea Party favorite but like Rubio she’s only been in her office for two years. Rep. Paul Ryan has been mentioned and he would certainly be helpful to Romney as he has an intimate knowledge of Congressional politics. He of course is hated by Democrats, which places him in a good light with conservatives. His budget proposal is well liked by independents. Rep. Allen West has also been mentioned as a potential running mate, Sarah Palin has gone so far as to speak of him as a good choice. West spent most of his life in the military and is beloved by the Tea Party. But like Rubio and Haley, he’s only been in office two years. His military experience is perhaps his biggest asset.

One more candidate worthy of mention is Michele Bachmann. Behind the scenes she is positioning herself for the nomination. The left hates her but she appeals to women. She did a good job running for President, she showed herself more than competent in numerous debates. Bachmann would be a nice complement to Romney, she’s conservative, a woman, an evangelical Christian, just about everything Romney is not. Her problems are two fold. She’s a Congressman and historically members of the House aren’t selected for VP. Her other problem is that she’s from a state Romney isn’t going to win and thus won’t help him win the White House. This could perhaps be offset by her nomination getting conservatives excited about the Romney campaign ala Palin in 2008.

I don’t know who Romney should pick yet. There are other candidates out there, perhaps some dark horses no one is thinking about right now. If I’m Romney I’m looking at Rubio, Haley and Bachmann. The two women can kill off what’s left of the Democrats war on women strategy (though like Palin they’ll just say these women vote against their “interest”). Haley can shore up North Carolina and maybe Virginia. Bachmann could swing Wisconsin and would get the grass roots evangelicals all a tizzy for Romney. Rubio could give Romney Florida and he would play well with hispanics, who could be the difference in this election. But of course, there are others out there and we never know if Romney will pick someone obscure like Bush did with Cheney in 2000.

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Romney Has No Chance Against Obama

March 29, 2012 14 Comments

It is becoming apparent that Mitt Romney’s chances against Obama are slim. That isn’t surprising on a number of levels. It’s very difficult to defeat a sitting President. The GOP has only done so once in the last century. A Republican moderate hasn’t won while running as a moderate since 1968 when the country hated President Johnson and the Democrats looked like fools during the riots at their convention. Those things are all playing against Romney and that’s before we look at the polls.

According to Rasmussen Romney is down 8 in Ohio, Quinnipiac shows him down 6. Quinnipiac has Romney down 7 in Florida. The most recent poll in Virginia shows Obama up 9 over Romney. I have news for all you folks who voted for Romney because he was the “only” candidate who could beat Obama. There is no pathway to victory for Romney without Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Not only is he down in those states beyond the margin of error but Obama is at or above 49% which leaves Romney with little room to obtain votes. These aren’t rinky dink polling outfits either, the sort like the New York Times likes to use where Republicans are under counted. Rasmussen is notorious for accurately sampling Republicans and Quinnipiac is always fair.

 Yes it’s early. Yes a lot can happen between March and November. But these polls show that Romney has a long way to go. He has a steep uphill climb ahead of him, one he will not likely win. Obama has ground forces in all three of those swing states already. Romney is just getting underway and doesn’t exactly have an enthusiastic party behind him. Romney won’t be able to out spend Obama, in fact he’ll be out spent. Romney isn’t going to be able to win simply by bashing his opponents. He’s actually going to have to stand for something and it’s going to have to be easier to understand than his 56 economic points.

The one bright side to the upcoming election is that it’s becoming clearer everyday that the Republicans will take control of the Senate, perhaps by a fairly wide margin. There are 10 seats currently held by Democrats where Republicans lead in the polls. Some by a large margin such as Nebraska and North Dakota. There are an additional three or four states where the Republican is within the margin of error against a Democrat incumbant. While we’ll lose Maine and probably Massachusetts, we’re going to pick up 6-8 other seats giving us 51-53 votes, enough to block Obama’s agenda whether we win the House or not.

Will the Republican Party ever learn its lesson? The GOP does best when it offers a clear alternative to the Democrats. When given the choice between liberal and liberal light, the voting public always goes with the authentic liberal. When given the choice between a liberal and a conservative more often than not the country chooses the conservative. We cannot continue to nominate people like Ford, Dole, McCain and Romney and expect to win. Moderates don’t contrast against a liberal and thus they lose. We have an important election this year and the party big wigs have given us a guy who has no chance of winning but have sold him to the party rank and file as the only guy who can win. Ohio, Florida and Virginia all show us that at this point Romney has no chance.

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Can Romney Win In The South?

January 11, 2012 Leave a comment

Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire Primary last night. Considering the fact that Romney was up in New Hampshire by double digits for the entire race, you would think the media wouldn’t get overly excited. Instead the press nearly crowned Romney with the nomination. All of this before more conservative states vote.

The real race was for second place, which was run by Ron Paul. Jon Huntsman came in third place. We will summarily dismiss Huntsman in light of the fact that exit polls showed that 51% of his voters wouldn’t mind a second Obama term. In other words, Huntsman was supported by Democrats who will not be voting down south in GOP primaries.

Paul was supported by a large number of independents and a handful of Kusinich Democrats. Once again, Paul has trouble courting the Republican vote. It isn’t overly surprising that in Iowa and New Hampshire someone like Ron Paul does well. These are two states that aren’t staunchly Republican and have a lot of independent voters who are allowed to vote in GOP primaries and caucuses. While the Ronulans are reading great things into Paul’s second place finish, it’s unlikely to translate down south.

The big question is whether Romney can ride his New Hampshire victory to victory down south. He has two things going for him. First, without a doubt Mitt has more money than everyone else. That goes a long way. Second, the candidate that folks in South Carolina and Florida have liked the most, Newt Gingrich, has made outrageously left-wing attacks on Romney. It’s to the point where giants like we here at Steven Birn Speaks are attacking Newt, even lesser known pundits like Rush Limbaugh have gone on the warpath against Newt.

In short, the conservative challenger to Romney in the south has outraged conservatives and thus played right into Romney’s hand. It would be nice to think that Rick Santorum could pull all of Newt’s votes. But the reality is that while Santorum had a great ground game in Iowa and was able to pull off a second place finish there because of it, he has no significant ground game in South Carolina or Florida. Worse for him, he doesn’t have much money. Even worse, Newt continues his Bain attacks on Romney which is only making Mitt look like a conservative being attacked by a Democrat thus solidifying Mitt’s dubious conservative credentials. That isn’t any good for Santorum.

This is Romney’s race to lose now. The coronation wasn’t last night, it will be after he wins in both South Carolina and Florida. Once he wins in two southern, largely Republican states he’ll be able to knock out the funding for all the other candidates, save Ron Paul, and coast to the nomination. As disgusting as it is, it looks like Romney is going to be the nominee barring a shocking upset by Rick Santorum down south. Such can happen but not so long as Newt is attacking Romney from the left.

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