The Obvious Bias Of The CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac Poll
September 26, 2012 4 Comments
The latest Rasmussen poll shows the race tied at 46. When ‘leaners’ are included Romney is up 48-46. However if you were to listen to CBS or the NY Times you would think this race is over. That’s because the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio show Obama up 9, 12 and 10 points. Let’s put it this way gang, if Obama is up 9 in Florida and 10 in Ohio, this race is over. But if we pause for a moment and try to make sense of these polls there is at least one question that comes to mind. If Obama is up 10 in Ohio, why is he campaigning there today?
Let’s take a look at the CBS/NY Times poll in a little more detail. But let’s first look at what the demographics were for the last two elections in each state. We’ll do this in the form of D/R/I (Dems/Republicans/Independents). In Florida 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29, in Ohio 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28 and in Pennsylvania 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23. What we see is that Florida was D+3 in 2008 and even in 2010, both landslide elections. So what did the CBS/NY Times poll give us, 36/27/33. Or D+9. In other words, they think in Florida the Democrats will best the GOP in turnout three times higher than in the Obama landslide of 2008. No wonder Obama is up 9 in Florida according to the poll.
It’s no better in the other states. In 2008 Ohio saw a D+8 election but in 2010 it was a R+1 election. So of course the CBS/NY Time poll weights its results at 35/26/35 or D+9. So of course Obama is up 10 according to this poll. Never mind that even in a Dem landslide in 2008 the GOP still managed to be 31% of the electorate in Ohio, somehow barely a quarter of Ohio voters will be Republicans if the CBS/NY Times poll is accurate. In Pennsylvania it’s 39/28/27 or D+11 for an Obama lead of 12 in the poll. Remember the landslide 2008 election only saw D+7 in the Keystone State, so CBS/ NY Times thinks that will increase this year.
These polls simply aren’t accurate. They have no chance to be accurate because they assume that this will be a landslide win for the Democrats. There is simply nothing indicating this will be the case. It was fairly easy to predict that 2008 was going to be a Democratic year, likewise 2010 was going to be a Republican year. You figure this election will be somewhere in the middle. Obama isn’t beloved anymore, some people will shift away from him. Yet CBS/NY Times polling seems to think the Democrats will beat their 2008 landslide, it’s absolutely ludicrous.
So what’s the goal of these obviously inaccurate polls? It’s two fold. First, the media wants to demoralize Republicans. They want to make us believe we cannot win this election so we stay home and actually lose. Second, they want the defeat of Barack Obama to be shocking so as to neuter the power of the new President. No doubt if you believe Obama is up 10 in Ohio you’ll be shocked when he loses by 1 in November. There may even be outrage, no doubt the left will accuse vote counters of impropriety. The end result is that the media will have planted a question in the minds of Americans about the legitimacy of the new President and thus his power will be diminished.
We Republicans shouldn’t get worked up over these polls. Florida and Ohio are absolutely in play for Mitt Romney. Pennsylvania likely is not. He won’t lose by 12 there but a 5 point defeat would hardly be shocking. But in Ohio and Florida, if we discount the obvious Democrat bias in these polls it makes for a very close election. In other words, Florida and Ohio are winnable for Romney. That’s perhaps why Mitt Romney is in Ohio today and so is Barack Obama.
About Steven
It would be interesting to see some of the internal polls taken by both campaigns. I suspect they show the race to be very tight, which is why both candidates are scrapping for the battleground states.
The internals must show a close race in these states because otherwise Obama wouldn’t spend time in Ohio. No candidate would waste their time in a state where they’re up 10 points unless they’re fundraising. Last month Obama spent three days in Iowa, which suggests not only is Iowa in play but Obama believes he needs Iowa to win re-election. It’s a close race, I still see Obama winning but it’s closer than the media is portraying it.
So let’s see, it’s Rasmussen against both the polling universe and the “mainstream” media, huh? Any other right-wing paranoia you’d like to get out there before you implode in self-righteous indignation?i
And what do you make of the fact that the polls you revile found after Obama’s poor performance in the first debate tightened the race? Did they suddenly give up the effort to demoralize Republicans and decide to go straight?
Rasmussen had the last two elections spot on, so they have some credibility. There’s a NY Times/CBS poll out today in Ohio showing Obama up 5 with a D+8 poll, there’s also a PPP poll showing Obama up 5 with a D+8 model. These polls show the race tightening, they had Obama up 10 before the first debate. But their model is still flawed. In Ohio we will not have a D+8 election. PPP’s poll showed more Democrats coming to the polls than in 2008 while independents apparently are going to stay home. It just isn’t believable. Democrats are not more excited about this election than they were in 2008 when Ohio was D+8. Keep in mind Ohio was R+1 in 2010. Odds are Ohio will be somewhere in the middle, perhaps D+3 or D+4 this time around.
That’s not to say Obama won’t win Ohio. But he isn’t going to win Ohio by 5 points and Democrats aren’t going to come to the polls in higher numbers than in 2008. Republicans will be coming out in higher numbers than 2008, they did just that in 2010.