Obama Convention Bounce Really A Clinton Bounce
September 10, 2012 2 Comments
Obama has received a substantial convention bounce that could easily propel him to victory in November. He’s up 4 in the Rasmussen poll and 5 in the Gallup poll. Other polls show him up 2-4 points. Republicans will try to make themselves sleep better by telling ourselves that Carter was up 8 on Reagan in October and Dukakis was up 17 on Bush after the 1988 Democratic Convention. We’re fooling ourselves if we think that Romney can lead us to a landslide victory like Reagan and Bush did. The cold hard fact is that there aren’t as many independent voters who can be swayed by Romney as there were back in the 80′s.
Having said that we should recognize that historically the Democrats have received a bigger convention bounce than the Republicans. For whatever reason Democrats can get undecided voters on their side after a convention, if only for a week. The fact is, convention bounces tend to fade quickly. Romney’s did, Obama’s is likely to. Especially when you consider that only 35 million people watched his speech. That’s more than Romney’s but it’s way off where Convention ratings used to be. It’s hard to sustain a lasting Convention bounce when only a quarter of the electorate is watching.
My theory on Obama’s convention bounce is that it’s really a Clinton bounce. We cannot discount how much people like Bill Clinton and how much they wish Clinton were in office rather than Bush or Obama. Is there any doubt that if he were allowed to run in 2000 that Clinton would have won? Obama’s poll numbers started shooting up after the Clinton speech, which was far better than Obama’s. If Obama’s convention bounce is really an Obama bounce, then the bounce will fade away very quickly. After all, Obama is not Clinton and he can’t trot out Clinton in his stead at campaign events.
Romney is doing what he can to eliminate Obama’s convention bounce. He is apparently ‘carpet bombing’ swing states with ads. That’s a good start for him. One mistake he made last week was not holding any major rallies and thus he was completely out of the spotlight. Surprisingly Obama and Clinton hardly mentioned Romney’s name, neither did most of the other Dem speakers. The Democrats planned to have Biden crash Tampa during the GOP Convention, our guys should have been in Charlotte last week. Instead, as usual, the Republicans don’t know how to take the fight to the Democrats and Romney and Ryan were neither seen nor heard from all week. A huge blunder in today’s instant information society.
After the GOP Convention I thought maybe Romney had a 50% chance of winning. Now, I don’t even think he’s at 40%. At best Romney has a 33% chance of beating Obama. It isn’t so much the convention bounce as much as it’s Romney’s strategy. He clearly doesn’t get it and if doesn’t get it, he isn’t going to win. Beyond that, if the public isn’t scared off by a party with an extreme, up front abortion agenda such as the Democrats or a party that boos God then we have to ask ourselves whether we’re lost as a country. The answer of course is yes, we’ve been lost for decades. Romney isn’t going to save us, he’s not an authentic conservative and he isn’t a Christian. How can we expect to beat an authentic liberal with an inauthentic conservative? What was the GOP thinking? Even if we accept Obama’s bounce is due to Clinton, what pathway is there for a Romney victory if all it takes for Obama is a Clinton speech?