Why Mitt Romney Will Lose To Obama
July 2, 2012 9 Comments
We need to come to grips with the fact that Obama is likely to be re-elected this November. There are any number of reasons for this, not the least of which is that Obama has been able to hold steady despite two months of increasingly bad news. Chief Justice Roberts gave Obama a massive political victory by bowing to outside political pressure in the Obamacare ruling. This victory for Obama suddenly makes him look like a winner. Initially I believed the ruling would help Romney but after thinking about it some I no longer believe this to be the case. Obama has at least a 75% chance of being re-elected, perhaps even more.
Romney now has to argue on a national stage against Obamacare. He’s going to have a difficult time doing this in light of the fact that he is responsible for Romneycare. Obama will spend the entire fall claiming that he got the idea for Obamacare from Romney. It’s an absolute lie of course but by the time Romney and the GOP expose the lie the public will have moved on an the lie will become the truth. So far Romney’s call for repeal has gone over great with the people who already support him. But his lack of details concerning what he would replace Obamacare with aren’t going to inspire independents to vote for him. Romney needs a plan and he needs it now. Romney should announce a major healthcare speech for the week after Independence Day wherein he lays out what he would replace Obamacare with. So far that doesn’t appear to be forthcoming. He’s relying on the Obamacare ruling to be so unpopular that no one will care what his plan is so long as he repeals Obama’s. This is a fatal error.
Europe doesn’t appear headed for a blowup anytime soon. Merkel caved and the Euro Zone will continue bailouts and assorted nonsense. While the Zone may ultimately collapse, it won’t do so this year. As such stocks climbed substantially on Friday. That can only help Obama, who in the very least won’t face a massive international economic crisis in the next four months. He’ll face poor economic performance here at home and general economic uncertainty. Whether that will hurt him remains to be seen. The problem Romney faces is that he has yet to put forward a detailed economic vision. Independent voters may be willing to give Romney a look but not if he doesn’t provide a detailed plan. Again, simply being against Obama’s vision doesn’t win.
Looking at the electoral college, it’s difficult to see Romney’s path to victory. It’s hard to believe he’ll take Virginia at this point. He isn’t going to take Michigan or Wisconsin despite the GOP’s hopeful attitude about the state’s. Ohio is making an economic recovery, largely because of Gov. John Kasich’s economic reforms. Unfortunately Obama is likely to be given credit and as such it’s becoming increasingly clear that Ohio isn’t going to be won. That leaves Romney with no path to victory. Obviously economic news can change but at this point the polls seem to indicate a big Obama win.
Let’s be honest my fellow Republicans, none of us really expected Romney to win. As with all the other moderates nominated before him, he’s destined to lose. The American people would rather have an authentic liberal than a faux conservative. When will our party ever learn its lesson? Ford, Bush 41 (after we figured out who he really was), Dole, McCain and Romney are all cut from the same cloth. They’re all moderate to liberal and they’ve all lost. We keep getting told that the conservative can’t win when the reality is that the moderate can’t win. The result of nominating Romney will be defeat and four more years of the most destructive President this nation has ever known. I hope the moderate’s in the Party will be happy.