Why Mitt Romney Will Lose To Obama
July 2, 2012 9 Comments
We need to come to grips with the fact that Obama is likely to be re-elected this November. There are any number of reasons for this, not the least of which is that Obama has been able to hold steady despite two months of increasingly bad news. Chief Justice Roberts gave Obama a massive political victory by bowing to outside political pressure in the Obamacare ruling. This victory for Obama suddenly makes him look like a winner. Initially I believed the ruling would help Romney but after thinking about it some I no longer believe this to be the case. Obama has at least a 75% chance of being re-elected, perhaps even more.
Romney now has to argue on a national stage against Obamacare. He’s going to have a difficult time doing this in light of the fact that he is responsible for Romneycare. Obama will spend the entire fall claiming that he got the idea for Obamacare from Romney. It’s an absolute lie of course but by the time Romney and the GOP expose the lie the public will have moved on an the lie will become the truth. So far Romney’s call for repeal has gone over great with the people who already support him. But his lack of details concerning what he would replace Obamacare with aren’t going to inspire independents to vote for him. Romney needs a plan and he needs it now. Romney should announce a major healthcare speech for the week after Independence Day wherein he lays out what he would replace Obamacare with. So far that doesn’t appear to be forthcoming. He’s relying on the Obamacare ruling to be so unpopular that no one will care what his plan is so long as he repeals Obama’s. This is a fatal error.
Europe doesn’t appear headed for a blowup anytime soon. Merkel caved and the Euro Zone will continue bailouts and assorted nonsense. While the Zone may ultimately collapse, it won’t do so this year. As such stocks climbed substantially on Friday. That can only help Obama, who in the very least won’t face a massive international economic crisis in the next four months. He’ll face poor economic performance here at home and general economic uncertainty. Whether that will hurt him remains to be seen. The problem Romney faces is that he has yet to put forward a detailed economic vision. Independent voters may be willing to give Romney a look but not if he doesn’t provide a detailed plan. Again, simply being against Obama’s vision doesn’t win.
Looking at the electoral college, it’s difficult to see Romney’s path to victory. It’s hard to believe he’ll take Virginia at this point. He isn’t going to take Michigan or Wisconsin despite the GOP’s hopeful attitude about the state’s. Ohio is making an economic recovery, largely because of Gov. John Kasich’s economic reforms. Unfortunately Obama is likely to be given credit and as such it’s becoming increasingly clear that Ohio isn’t going to be won. That leaves Romney with no path to victory. Obviously economic news can change but at this point the polls seem to indicate a big Obama win.
Let’s be honest my fellow Republicans, none of us really expected Romney to win. As with all the other moderates nominated before him, he’s destined to lose. The American people would rather have an authentic liberal than a faux conservative. When will our party ever learn its lesson? Ford, Bush 41 (after we figured out who he really was), Dole, McCain and Romney are all cut from the same cloth. They’re all moderate to liberal and they’ve all lost. We keep getting told that the conservative can’t win when the reality is that the moderate can’t win. The result of nominating Romney will be defeat and four more years of the most destructive President this nation has ever known. I hope the moderate’s in the Party will be happy.
About Steven
You paint a very sobering picture, one that may be all too accurate. Romney could alleviate some of these concerns by coming out with some of the details of any plan he may have. Instead, he seems to be content to run “against” Obama. I, too, am not convinced that will be enough to win the election.
I expect him to win. I can agree that the country needed 75 pages of healthcare reform, such is the size of Romney care. NOT 2700 pages that will make our healthcare system available for all and as efficient as a 3rd world country.
If Romney loses, it’s because of the Chicago mafia style politics that probably influenced Judge Roberts as well.
I agree that Romneycare is substantially different than Obamacare, though I oppose both. The question though is whether Obama will be able to convince the public that Romneycare really isn’t any different. Recent polls seem to indicate that Obama’s attacks on Bain Capital have hurt Romney, so it isn’t implausable to believe that Obama’s argument on Romneycare will be heard and believed by the public.
Damn the polls, full speed ahead. We’ve got to win with this horse even if it is lame.
If you want to look on the positive side, in all of the RCP battleground states Obama’s poll average is under 50%. In fact, it’s only above 48% in two states: New Hampshire (48.7) and Nevada (49.3). The true battle ground states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Iowa all show Obama in the 46 range with the slight exception of Virginia which shows him at 47.2. If you want to play positive, you could run with the Dick Morris theory that 80% of undecided voters will vote against the incumbent which would give Romney a victory.
I’m just not seeing this play out for Romney though. There is a segment of undecided independent voters who will decide between now and the day before election day and I’m betting most end up supporting Obama in the end because Romney doesn’t offer anything more than a vague alternative. Undecided voters going into election day will break heavy for Romney though but they won’t be enough to win Ohio, Virginia, Michigan or Wisconsin.
I’m trying to stay positive about it, but your entry does raise some troublesome truths.
Troublesome indeed.
I keep thinking that Romney is holding his “push” and all his money for a late run in the fall. Maybe that stradegy will work but I just dont see it. The real problem is the Republican party itself. Why did we (not me) think Romney is the best candidate? I know for a fact that conservatives are much more considerate than liberals when it comes to thinking about a candidate who will represent ALL the people, not jut their side. But with liberals putting a radical like Obama in the White House, and standing by him, the gloves need to be off. The war has been started wether we want it or not. Conservatives “seem” more pationate about politics and their beliefs but lets face it, they’re not. Liberals have taken a “by any means nessicary” approach, dont conservatives see that?!
I cannot see Newt, Santorum or Herman Cain standing on the sidelines right now. They would have multiple rallies going on in multiple states at the same time! If Romney does not win this and accully do something if he gets in, then I am done with Republicans. There really needs to be a third party anyhow. Yeah, yeah its just a wasted vote. But I would rather vote for someone who really believes in my political ideology than waste another vote on another stupid moderate, who we all know will not win.
On a darker note, I have started to plant the seeds of revolution in myself and my family. Why? Because the war on Christanity started in the 90s and has blossomed with Obama and his puppet master Bill Ayers. If Christians dont wake up and realize its time to fight (for his love and honor) than we might be in trouble of losing all our rights and being considered a “threat” in this country. Maybe its what Christians need, maybe its time to understand what Daniel in the lions den really is.
Romney is following the traditional campaign model where the challenger lays low in the summer so as not to over saturate himself. I think this strategy may have worked back in the day, especially in light of the limited resources candidates had and the late date at which nominations used to be secured. But we’re in the 21st century. For all intents and purposes Romney’s campaign has unlimited cash. We have a 24 hour news cycle that allows candidates to frame their opponents. Obama is attempting to do that and has been marginally successful with his Bain attacks.
I understand what Romney is thinking, sort of laying low over the Independence Day week. But he really needs to come out swinging the next few weeks. As for revolution, we’re generations away from such at thing at this point. With the exception of Obama’s contraception attacks, Christians are still free to worship as they see fit. Until that really becomes an issue, we have no business talking revolution.