Economy Makes Obama Vulnerable But Romney Cannot Exploit It

Earlier today I suggested that Romney has very little chance to beat Obama. The one thing that could render that analysis incorrect is the economy. It appears manufacturing is slowing down, shrinking in June for the first time in three years. On Friday the unemployment figures will be released, odds are it isn’t going to be terrific. Based on new unemployment claims, which in June averaged 387,000 per week, the unemployment number isn’t going down. New unemployment claims never decreased in June, despite the Department of Labor making such a claim nearly every week. They of course revise the previous week’s figures up and anything less is considered a “decline.”

Thursday’s Obamacare ruling caused stocks to drop dramatically. They rebounded Friday but only because Europe had reached a tentative economic deal. Stocks are back down today as businesses are very concerned over Obamacare. Individuals should be concerned as well, around 75% of the new taxes will be paid by those making less than $120,000 per year. With Obamacare scheduled to take effect in 2014, there is now actual tax and cost uncertainty. No one really knows how Obamacare is going to work. Businesses that don’t provide insurance today will likely see costs increase as they are taxed for failing to provide insurance. Likewise, individuals are also facing a massive tax increase if they don’t buy insurance.

In January 2013 we are facing massive tax increases as the Bush tax cuts expire. This has created tax uncertainty. John Roberts is to thank for piling on the uncertainty by ruling Obamacare a tax. Now businesses and individuals face tax and regulatory uncertainty going into 2014. The result is that stocks are down today. Couple that with manufacturing slowing, a stagnant economy and no real plan for the next four years, there are holes in Obama’s re-election campaign.

But these holes are not being exploited by Romney. A major Romney advisor is claiming the individual mandate isn’t a tax. If it isn’t a tax then the Supreme Court is insane (I’ll second that) but if it isn’t a tax it also undercuts the argument that Obamacare is now the biggest tax increase in history and thus Obama reneged on his promise not to raise taxes on those earning less than $250,000. What a foolish thing for a Romney advisor to say, he should be promptly fired. Unfortunately this isn’t the first time Eric Fehrnstrom has said something foolish, thus it’s a safe bet that Romney won’t fire him.

Romney still hasn’t offered a serious economic reform package that is simple and concise. He remains committed to his 56 point plan that he laid out during the GOP primary. This is of course absolutely foolishness. He needs to have a 4 point plan with all of the points easily understood in a sentence. He can lay out his four points in more detail of course but the main four must be concise and easily understood. Obviously they must contrast with Obama’s, which shouldn’t be difficult if Romney plans on halting government expansion and relying more on the private sector. But he hasn’t done this yet, which is maddening.

Obama is vulnerable but Romney is so weak, so afraid to make a bold move that Obama’s weaknesses cannot be exploited. We live in a country that has had 8% unemployment or higher throughout Obama’s term. We have added $5 trillion to the national debt. Obamacare is the largest tax increase in history and more tax increases are on the way when Bush’s tax cuts expire. We face massive economic uncertainty with a President who doesn’t really understand economics. Yet the GOP picked the weakest candidate to go up against Obama. Beating Obama should be a slam dunk. Instead he’s likely to dunk on the Republicans.